I tend to believe that the main thinking affecting investors with a negative sentiment in Apple’s long term future is one of historical perspective. Apple with their closed and vertical model lost to the more open model of Microsoft long ago. So the conventional thinking would be that both Google or Microsoft with their more open platform approach will again rise to dominance if history does repeat itself. There are, however, several things I believe are wrong with the thinking that history will repeat itself.
I’ve been trying to figure out for years why so many analysts get this wrong. If you can’t see the obvious diffences between the tech industry of the 1990s and today, you have no business predicting the future of any tech company, let alone Apple.
Also, if you believe that anything Microsoft or Google does is ‘open,’ you’re completely eating their marketing crap and not thinking critically at all.
Which would be fine, except that you’re playing with other people’s money.