An Interesting take on the Nokia/Microsoft Deal

> I have absolutely no qualms about calling this new regime at Nokia a puppet government. This is far and away the most brilliant move of Ballmer’s tenure. Whether it pays off is another question entirely. > > [UPDATE: [Former Microsoft exec Chris Weber](http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/nokia-appoints-chris-weber-to-president-of-nokia-inc-us-and-head-of-markets-north-america-115904119.html) has just been named President of Nokia Inc. (US). This is a coup, folks.] No doubt this new deal between Microsoft and Nokia is a lot more about saving sinking ships than taking over the world. And it was certainly the cheapest way for Microsoft to get back into the game. So agreed, it was a great move by Ballmer.

I don’t think long term that the fate of either Microsoft or Nokia will change much as a result of this, but it will get interesting for a while.

My thinking is that this deal will do a lot more to stall Android than it will Apple.

Android:phase one was all about killing off Windows Mobile in order to keep Bing Search from doing well. Phase two of Android seems to be about taking on Apple, though with recent events including this one, I’d say Android still has a lot of others to contend with before it can dream of taking iOS down even a notch.

HP made some interesting announcements this week that lead me to think they have as good a chance as anyone of seriously contending for the few people who want a tablet but not an iPad. Microsoft was getting nowhere, predictably, with WIndows Phone 7, but this Nokia deal will change that, particularly in Europe. With the iPhone on Verizon in the US, and Nokia peddling Windows Phone in Europe, and HP taking whatever is left of the tablet market after the iPad, I’d say Android’s “world domination” scenario is looking more and more like a pipe dream.

And RIM is definitely not coming back. I don’t see how.

There’s still a lot of market share to go around for everyone, but that’s my point. There’s plenty for everyone. We’re far from a two pony race here, folks. Google is fighting a war on several fronts, and at least so far in 2011, it’s losing a lot more battles than it’s winning.

This is the perfect scenario for Apple to thrive. In a world with many choices, Apple always does better than in a world with only two.