<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" version="2.0" xmlns:media="http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/"><channel><title><![CDATA[rumors - joe cieplinski]]></title><description><![CDATA[rumors - joe cieplinski]]></description><link>http://joecieplinski.com/blog/</link><image><url>http://joecieplinski.com/blog/favicon.png</url><title>rumors - joe cieplinski</title><link>http://joecieplinski.com/blog/</link></image><generator>Ghost 3.37</generator><lastBuildDate>Fri, 13 Nov 2020 08:32:58 GMT</lastBuildDate><atom:link href="http://joecieplinski.com/blog/tag/rumors/rss/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"/><ttl>60</ttl><item><title><![CDATA[More Ups Than Downs]]></title><description><![CDATA[<!--kg-card-begin: markdown--><p>Rumor has it Apple is cooking up a new framework that helps unify the development of macOS and iOS apps. At least, that’s the part of the rumor that makes the most sense, anyway.<sup class="footnote-ref"><a href="#fn1" id="fnref1">[1]</a></sup></p>
<p>Code-named, Marzipan, this new framework would help developers who make either iOS apps or</p>]]></description><link>http://joecieplinski.com/blog/2017/12/26/more-ups-than-downs/</link><guid isPermaLink="false">5a5d1b5925d00b7ebe1f4a7d</guid><category><![CDATA[apple]]></category><category><![CDATA[iOS]]></category><category><![CDATA[MacOS]]></category><category><![CDATA[rumors]]></category><dc:creator><![CDATA[Joe Cieplinski]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 26 Dec 2017 19:30:02 GMT</pubDate><content:encoded><![CDATA[<!--kg-card-begin: markdown--><p>Rumor has it Apple is cooking up a new framework that helps unify the development of macOS and iOS apps. At least, that’s the part of the rumor that makes the most sense, anyway.<sup class="footnote-ref"><a href="#fn1" id="fnref1">[1]</a></sup></p>
<p>Code-named, Marzipan, this new framework would help developers who make either iOS apps or Mac apps to make both using the same basic toolset. Obvious differences between the platforms would necessitate some variation, of course (clicks vs taps, and all that), but the underlying APIs for creating either would be largely the same. And thus, perhaps you could even create (and sell) a single app binary that is capable of running on either platform, if you choose.</p>
<p>Rather than a straight port of iOS’s UIKit to the Mac, as some have requested from Apple for years, Marzipan would more likely be a new framework that replaces <em>both</em> AppKit and UIKit in favor of something more modern and clean.</p>
<p>However they go about it, the million-dollar question is: Would this be a good thing?</p>
<p>Let me start with the short version: Yes. Of course this would be a good thing. There are downsides, to be sure. But to me, the good outweighs the bad here.</p>
<p>Let me start with the downsides.</p>
<h2 id="thiswillleadtoalotofcrappyiosportsonthemac">This will lead to a lot of crappy iOS ports on the Mac</h2>
<p>No doubt about it. Thousands of previously iOS-only apps will end up on the Mac barely altered with bad UI on day one. Count on it. Remember how many terrible watchOS apps debuted minutes after watchOS was made available? Apps that had no place on the Watch, that tried to do way too much on the Watch, that didn’t understand the utility of the Watch, and so on? That will absolutely happen on the Mac, too. It will still take time and effort to make a <em>good</em> Mac app, and many developers will not bother. They will try to make a quick buck.</p>
<p>But who cares? The last time I checked, there is already a ton of crap available on the Mac. A few thousand more bad apps will be a blip on the radar.</p>
<p>Here’s the thing: People who care about good software will <em>find</em> the good stuff. People who care to make good software will <em>make</em> the good stuff. There aren’t many people in either group. And there never will be.</p>
<p>Developers who care about making great software keep wanting the majority of people to give a shit. They don’t. Find your little niche and set your business model accordingly.</p>
<h2 id="thiswillleadtoarepeatofiphoneandipaduniversalapps">This will lead to a repeat of iPhone and iPad Universal apps</h2>
<p>When Apple made universal storyboards available on iOS, the promise was it would now be easier to make apps that run great on both iPad and iPhone. Looking at the disparity between the number of iPhone apps and iPad apps available, Apple decided getting more apps on iPad was a priority.</p>
<p>The result was a ton of new apps that now run natively on iPad but are little more than “blown up” iPhone apps. They don’t use the extra power and screen real-estate available on iPad in any fundamental way.</p>
<p>There are some apps, however, built with universal storyboards that take full advantage of iPad. The problem here isn’t the tool, but rather the people using the tool. The same will be true for Marzipan apps.</p>
<p>In the hands of lesser developers, <em>any</em> tool will be used to create crap. That’s no reason for the rest of us to keep using clunky tools.</p>
<h2 id="thiswillnegativelyimpactsomebusinesses">This will negatively impact some businesses</h2>
<p>Some developers make iOS and Mac versions of the same app and sell them separately for a one-time upfront price. If Apple makes a “universal” buy once-run-on-any-Apple-device binary possible, the customer expectation is likely to shift, and people will simply <em>expect</em> to have to pay only once.<sup class="footnote-ref"><a href="#fn2" id="fnref2">[2]</a></sup></p>
<p>I don’t have a lot to say to these folks, except you are correct. If you currently sell a paid-up-front app on iOS and Mac, there will be some customer expectation and pressure to make your app universal. And more than likely that will be coupled with the expectation of lower prices, too. There’s not a whole lot you can do about this, except:</p>
<ul>
<li>Don’t go universal: Fantastical has pulled this off for years on iOS, refusing to make the app a single purchase on iPad and iPhone. They get complaints, I’m sure. But they aren’t exactly going out of business over it. And given there are a lot of iOS users who don’t use the Mac, there may be at least a slightly stronger argument for not having to pay extra for a Mac app they will never use. I suspect more developers will go the non-universal route this time around. And given this is not a simple matter of screen size, as it was on the iPad, a port of an iOS app to the Mac, even using Marzipan, is going to take quite a bit of time. It will be a while, in other words, before the pressure from other developers gets extreme to start selling your existing app as universal. So you have time.</li>
<li>Get out of the paid-up-front business. Apps like Ulysses have shifted to a subscription model for a reason. They see the future coming. Yes, I know subscriptions aren’t for every app. But two years ago, a word processor would have been on most people’s list of <em>can’t possibly go subscription</em> apps.<sup class="footnote-ref"><a href="#fn3" id="fnref3">[3]</a></sup></li>
</ul>
<p>Undoubtedly, businesses will fold after Marzipan. And that’s a shame. But many of those businesses are likely going to fail, anyway. Others will adapt. The world has largely moved on from paid-up-front software. We’re long past the point where Apple (or anyone else, for that matter) is going to hold back on anything because it might hurt paid-up-front app makers. Sugar-coating that would be cruel to those who have been and continue to be affected. Better to be honest than spread false hope.</p>
<h2 id="eventuallyuikitandappkitwillenduplikecarbon">Eventually, UIKit and AppKit will end up like Carbon</h2>
<p>It stands to reason that after Marzipan gets released into the wild, both UIKit and AppKit will be on “borrowed time.” Just as Cocoa replaced Carbon, eventually Apple will very likely want <em>all</em> apps to be written using Marzipan.</p>
<p>This is not such a huge deal for small utility apps. But consider an app like Photoshop. Or BBEdit. Those are <em>massive</em> codebases. For any company that’s had a Mac app since the early days of OS X, Marzipan is going to mean a lot of work rewriting bits that are currently working just fine. And that sucks.</p>
<p>Even larger iOS apps, like Procreate or Ulysses, would not be a small conversion job.</p>
<p>Now, very likely, there would be a generous grace period, just as there was with Carbon, where AppKit and UIKit apps could continue to run and be updated. Marzipan will very likely be optional for at least a while. (I’m thinking right up until the entire Mac hardware line goes ARM.) And in the case of macOS, I’m sure AppKit apps would continue to run for a long time, even past the point where Apple stops accepting them in the Mac App Store.</p>
<p>But eventually, Apple will start dropping hints at WWDC: “We believe Marzipan (or whatever the official name will be) is the way to create the best user experiences moving forward.” At which time you’ll know you have a couple of years to get your legacy code converted.</p>
<p>There’s no way around this being a pain in the ass for some developers. In fact, if there’s one group of people who have the biggest reason to gripe about Marzipan, it’s the folks with the largest legacy codebases. But technology marches on. It would be hard to argue that Apple should have allowed Carbon to go on this long.</p>
<p>Another thing to consider: The retirement of Carbon led to new opportunities for a lot of developers. Legacy companies spent years rewriting their Carbon-based apps, which gave small indies the opportunity to start fresh in Cocoa, move faster, and create legitimate competition. <sup class="footnote-ref"><a href="#fn4" id="fnref4">[4]</a></sup></p>
<p>With any luck, Apple will make the translation over to Marzipan as painless as possible. Who knows? Apple isn’t as powerless in this transaction as it was in the Carbon days. So they could tell us to go pound sand, if they wanted to. But I suspect they will want to make this transition smooth.</p>
<p>So that’s the bad news. What do we get in return?</p>
<h2 id="atleastafewgoodiosdevswhohavenevertriedmacosdevelopmentwilllikelygiveitatryandviceversa">At least a few good iOS devs who have never tried macOS development will likely give it a try, and vice versa</h2>
<p>Gus Mueller wrote <a href="http://shapeof.com/archives/2017/12/bloomberg_single_ui_experience.html">a piece</a> last week about Marzipan, suggesting that no miracle framework can be a panacea for all the problems associated with porting iOS apps to the Mac. He’s absolutely right. The hardest part of making a Mac app, or any software, for that matter, is never the framework. Anyone can learn to write code that executes. The challenge, as Mueller puts it, is caring enough to do it well.</p>
<p><em>No framework can make developers care more about making great things.</em></p>
<p>But speaking as someone who <em>does</em> care, I sure wouldn’t mind if Apple made my life a little easier.</p>
<p>Imagine you’re pushing a rock twice your size up a hill. It’s snowing, and you have no shoes or coat on. Someone is on the other side of the rock pushing in the opposite direction.</p>
<p>If I offered you a pair of shoes, you’re telling me you wouldn’t take them?</p>
<p>There’s no doubt in my mind there are good iOS devs out there who have never ventured over to the Mac because it looks like it would be just a bit more effort than it’s worth. It’s not that they can’t do it because AppKit is some incredibly hard thing that only a rocket scientist can figure out. (I’ve made AppKit apps, so trust me, it’s not rocket science.) But it is yet another thing to learn. In addition to having to sweat the details about the platform, user experience, etc., you also have to learn the differences between an NSButton and a UIButton, NSColor and UIColor, and on and on. I remember when I was going through it, I never once said “This is too hard!” It was more like “Why the heck is this so different?”</p>
<p>Also, there are many cases where the simplest of things take more effort in AppKit than on iOS. And even when something isn’t more effort, just finding answers to basic questions was a chore, because it’s harder to get answers from a web search about AppKit.<sup class="footnote-ref"><a href="#fn5" id="fnref5">[5]</a></sup></p>
<p>A unified API would obliterate these small frustrations. When I want to add a button to a view, I’d add it the same way on macOS as I do on iOS. When I want to specify a color, I’d use the same syntax for both.</p>
<p>If we apply the infamous “aliens landing on Earth” hypothetical to the development of iOS and macOS apps, of course the aliens would think it’s ridiculous this isn’t already the way things work.</p>
<p>And the benefits really could go in both directions. Some macOS devs may just find that once they learn this new framework, suddenly their great Mac apps are just a little bit easier to port over to the iPad.<sup class="footnote-ref"><a href="#fn6" id="fnref6">[6]</a></sup></p>
<p>Regardless of how much junk gets made by others, in the hands of those who care, better tools are still a good thing.</p>
<p>If you care about making great apps, then Marzipan should at least make you excited about a slightly easier path to platforms you haven’t yet explored, or a simplification between the two versions of your apps you already maintain.</p>
<h2 id="alowerbarriertoentryfornewdevs">A lower barrier to entry for new devs</h2>
<p>Marzipan will not only make it easier for an existing iOS dev to move to macOS, and vice versa. It will also be easier for new developers to get started in Apple’s ecosystem. If we’re not talking about UIKit ported to AppKit, but rather a completely new set of APIs, that would mean years of knowledge about how those current frameworks get used would be baked into the new framework. Apple’s engineers are pretty good at this stuff.<sup class="footnote-ref"><a href="#fn7" id="fnref7">[7]</a></sup> I’m guessing they know all the pain points for new developers coming to the platform, and they’ll seek to decrease that pain.</p>
<p>More new blood in the ecosystem means more innovation, more creativity, more inclusiveness. It probably also means more terrible apps, but like I said before, the cream that rises to the top will be worth it. As much as the old-timers love their little niche community of app celebrities, the future of the platform depends on all of us getting replaced eventually. Personally, I welcome the possibility of an influx of bright new talent, particularly to the Mac.</p>
<h2 id="lesscodeisagoodthing">Less code is a good thing</h2>
<p>While we’re on the subject of making things easier, Marzipan also promises more shared code between iOS and Mac versions of apps. We’ve been able for a long time to share some elements of our apps, models, classes, etc. in the same project file with different targets. With Marzipan, we could end up sharing even more code between platforms. Not all of it, of course. But a <em>lot</em> more of it.</p>
<p>Fewer repeated classes equals less code, which equals easier testing, which equals less room for human error, which equals more-reliable apps.</p>
<p>It also means less duplication of effort. Which is easier to sell to middle managers on a budget.</p>
<h2 id="aunifiedframeworkthatsstillnative">A unified framework that’s still native</h2>
<p>I was a middle manager once. Every year, my boss would bring me into his office and hand me a budget that was invariably 15% smaller than last year’s and tell me to make it work, no matter what I had to do. Same output. Lower cost. That meant giving part-timers fewer hours, not extending contracts, and in some cases, eliminating positions altogether.<sup class="footnote-ref"><a href="#fn8" id="fnref8">[8]</a></sup></p>
<p>That was always my last resort, though. More often than not, I’d look at ways to spend less money on the services we delivered. There are always inefficiencies in any business, and if you put enough pressure on people, they will find them, even if it ends up hurting the product.</p>
<p>Enter our old friend, <em>Write-Once, Run-Anywhere</em>. We had a brief period of bliss with Apple’s push for native iPhone apps back in 2008. But the Dark Lord’s lieutenant has returned, and although he is not yet regained his full strength, his minions are gathering in Mordor.</p>
<p>Slack. Skype. Banking apps—chances are, you are already seeing more cross-platform Electron apps on your Mac and non-native apps on your phone as well. This is a trend. It will continue.</p>
<p>Marzipan probably won’t save us from this nightmare. But if even <em>one</em> of these JavaScript-infused beasts turns out to be an iOS-to-Mac native port on my Mac instead, it will be worth it.</p>
<p>As a consultant, I like the idea of being able to pitch an even <em>slightly</em> less expensive Mac add-on to an existing iOS contract. “Oh, you were going to build a Mac version in Electron? Well, we can make a much richer native experience reusing a lot of our efforts on iOS…” It’s still a tough sell, but it is just a bit easier.</p>
<h2 id="themacislesslikelytogetleftoutofnewapigoodies">The Mac is less likely to get left out of new API goodies</h2>
<p>If Apple only has to maintain one framework for adding new features to iOS and macOS, it’s less likely to leave the Mac out of new APIs. That means no longer waiting a year or more to get the same interesting cool new features we see on iOS.</p>
<p>And given Apple’s tendency to eat its own dog food, I can see this having a very positive effect on the App Store as well. Imagine the App Store app being built using Marzipan, sharing its code between macOS and iOS. Now features like gifting, app previews, review prompting, and other things that have been missing on the Mac App Store for years would actually take effort to <em>exclude</em> from the Mac.<sup class="footnote-ref"><a href="#fn9" id="fnref9">[9]</a></sup></p>
<p>Simplifying to one framework could also improve the speed at which Apple keeps up with its documentation and sample code. Wouldn’t that be a wonderful thing?</p>
<p>The Mac market is far too small compared to iOS to be a top priority for Apple. At least with Marzipan, macOS can maybe tag along with its more popular baby brother on new features.</p>
<h2 id="moreoptionsisalmostalwaysbetterthanfeweroptions">More options is almost always better than fewer options</h2>
<p>People who have been reading me for a long time know that generally I’m a fan of having more options. It’s always better when Apple <em>gives</em> us something than when it takes something away.</p>
<p>Right now, even if I wanted to, I couldn’t sell an iOS app that also runs on the Mac in one simple transaction. At least not easily. Marzipan looks to make that very easy. Even if I never end up selling an app that way, I like having the option. I also like the idea of one button my customers press to download my app on all their devices, Macs included.</p>
<p>Developers are fond of criticizing Apple for all the things we <em>can’t</em> do. They tend to forget that Apple often gives us new things we <em>can</em> do. Sure, there are other things we’d <em>rather</em> they let us do. But I’ll take what I can get.</p>
<h2 id="conclusion">Conclusion</h2>
<p>All of this, of course, is merely speculation on a rumor. But it’s a rumor that makes a whole lot of sense to me. I would not be surprised to hear something official about this from Apple come June in San Jose. I would not be terribly surprised if it came a year or two later. I <em>would</em> be surprised, however, if it never comes to pass.</p>
<p>When you look at all four of Apple’s operating systems (iOS, tvOS, watchOS, and macOS) one of them is clearly not like the others. And that’s inefficient from Apple’s perspective. The benefits to Apple of a unified framework are just too numerous and obvious. So if I had a stake in the macOS or iOS ecosystems (and I do have one in both) I’d be doing some serious planning in the new year, so I can be prepared to reap the benefits, rather than wasting time fearing the negatives.</p>
<hr class="footnotes-sep">
<section class="footnotes">
<ol class="footnotes-list">
<li id="fn1" class="footnote-item"><p>Count me in with <a href="https://daringfireball.net/2017/12/marzipan">Gruber</a> on doubting that iOS apps are suddenly going to “magically” run on our Macs, unaltered. Anyone who has spent more than five minutes with an app in the Simulator knows this would be a terrible experience for the user, and Apple generally avoids making terrible user experiences, at least on purpose. <a href="#fnref1" class="footnote-backref">↩︎</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn2" class="footnote-item"><p>Or, Apple could <em>force</em> developers to make all apps universal. There’s no good reason to believe this, however. Apple never forced developers to make iOS apps universal for iPad and iPhone. They didn’t have to. The market pressures ensured that 90% of apps went that way. Why risk terrible PR over something that’s likely to happen, regardless? <a href="#fnref2" class="footnote-backref">↩︎</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn3" class="footnote-item"><p>My take has always been the same: If people continuously use your app, they should continuously pay you. It’s not the app they are paying for. It’s what your app does. Some apps people only use once in a blue moon. Charge them once in a blue moon. If you told me a $50 Mac app I only use about once a year is now free to download and $5 per use, or $20 per year for unlimited use, I’d be pretty happy about those two choices. Sure, you’ll make less in the short term from your current customers, but you’ll get a whole new set of customers who wouldn’t pay $50 under any circumstances. And that’s just one example of one of the many different things you could try. (99% of the people I know who argue against subscriptions with me have never tried subscriptions.) <a href="#fnref3" class="footnote-backref">↩︎</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn4" class="footnote-item"><p>Of course, some of those scrappy indies are now the legacy apps that will get ousted by younger competitors this time around. Such is the cycle of tech. <a href="#fnref4" class="footnote-backref">↩︎</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn5" class="footnote-item"><p>This is worth noting. Part of the reason, I’m sure, is sheer numbers. There are a lot more iOS devs. But everyone I’ve talked to who has gone through the transition from UIKit to AppKit has noticed the same thing I did when searching for answers. There’s just not as much available, in terms of tutorials, videos, Stack Overflow answers, etc. about AppKit. Many times, search results for an AppKit API would return results for the equivalent UIKit API instead. Maddening. One long-time Mac dev who shall remain nameless once joked to me that Mac devs have been doing their thing for so long they don’t need tools like Stack Overflow to figure anything out. Mac developers for the most part know what they are doing. He was joking, of course, but not really. And that reveals something that I’ve felt for a long time about at least some of the Mac devs I’ve met. They <em>like</em> that they are a small, elite group. And they want it to stay that way. When iOS happened, they were happy to let the new kids invade <em>that</em> territory, as long as AppKit was there as a barrier to keep the lower-class iOS devs out of their little gated community of artisanal craft app makers. Marzipan, then, probably scares the hell out of a few of the old-school Mac devs. If not for the earlier stated reasons of having to rewrite legacy code, than for this. <a href="#fnref5" class="footnote-backref">↩︎</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn6" class="footnote-item"><p>I’d go as far as saying this should be Apple’s biggest goal in creating Marzipan. If handing iPhone devs a carrot led to dumbed-down iPad apps, perhaps they can offer the same carrot to Mac devs instead and get smartened-up iPad apps? <a href="#fnref6" class="footnote-backref">↩︎</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn7" class="footnote-item"><p>I offer UIKit, as compared to AppKit, as evidence. <a href="#fnref7" class="footnote-backref">↩︎</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn8" class="footnote-item"><p>The easiest way to make a good cut out of my budget would have been to eliminate <em>my</em> position, of course, since I was getting paid a lot more than the part-timers I was having to reduce. Only took my boss about eight years to figure that one out. <a href="#fnref8" class="footnote-backref">↩︎</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn9" class="footnote-item"><p>My personal theory on why the Mac App Store App has been completely neglected in recent years: Apple plans to release a port of the new iOS App Store using Marzipan, and thus hasn’t bothered with improvements to the current app. <a href="#fnref9" class="footnote-backref">↩︎</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</section>
<!--kg-card-end: markdown-->]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Apple's New Frontier]]></title><description><![CDATA[<!--kg-card-begin: markdown--><p>I posted a question on Twitter this morning about this supposed upcoming wrist computer from Apple.<a href="#fn:1" title="see footnote">[1]</a></p>
<blockquote>
<p>Serious question: who makes the current crappy wrist computer whose ass the iWatch is supposed to kick?</p>
<p>— jcieplinski (@jcieplinski) <a href="https://twitter.com/jcieplinski/status/309999210042884097">March 8, 2013</a></p>
</blockquote>
<script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" type="text/javascript"></script>
<p>Apple’s talent (mostly credited to Steve Jobs’ vision) has never</p>]]></description><link>http://joecieplinski.com/blog/2013/03/08/apples-new-frontier/</link><guid isPermaLink="false">5a5d1b5525d00b7ebe1f47e3</guid><category><![CDATA[apple]]></category><category><![CDATA[iWatch]]></category><category><![CDATA[products]]></category><category><![CDATA[rumors]]></category><dc:creator><![CDATA[Joe Cieplinski]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 08 Mar 2013 05:37:23 GMT</pubDate><content:encoded><![CDATA[<!--kg-card-begin: markdown--><p>I posted a question on Twitter this morning about this supposed upcoming wrist computer from Apple.<a href="#fn:1" title="see footnote">[1]</a></p>
<blockquote>
<p>Serious question: who makes the current crappy wrist computer whose ass the iWatch is supposed to kick?</p>
<p>— jcieplinski (@jcieplinski) <a href="https://twitter.com/jcieplinski/status/309999210042884097">March 8, 2013</a></p>
</blockquote>
<script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" type="text/javascript"></script>
<p>Apple’s talent (mostly credited to Steve Jobs’ vision) has never been to invent completley new products or categories of computing. What Apple does is identify a category of product in which there’s a lot of potential, where there will clearly be an audience, but where there’s currently no product that doesn’t completely suck. Then it makes a product that doesn’t suck in that category and mops up. It’s a beautiful strategy. And it happens to work.</p>
<p>So where are the crappy wrist computers? There’s the Pebble, I guess. A scrappy Kickstarter project that got some of us nerds excited last year. It’s severely limited in features and not altogether fashionable. So there’s potential for ass-kicking, no doubt. But is that all there is out there today? Where’s Microsoft’s wrist computer? Google’s? Sony’s? Samsung’s?</p>
<p>Well, Samsung’s would come after the iWatch, of course.</p>
<p>My point is, if this were the Next Big Thing, wouldn’t others be trying to do it already? Where’s the clear existing audience Apple wants to tap?</p>
<p>There were walkmen and then MP3 players before the iPod. The Treo and Blackberry and Windows Phone before the iPhone. Lots of Windows tablets before the iPad. Even the Mac and Apple II were not the first of their kind.</p>
<p>The other big rumored new product category from Apple, the TV, has tons of existing but unsatisfying devices already in the market. Google TV, Roku, Xbox live, even an existing Apple TV box. Amazon and Netflix are involved as well. A new and revolutionary Apple-branded TV would fit the pattern. Though the most important hurdle—content—seems to remain insurmountable at the moment.</p>
<p>But is this wearable wrist thing an actual category in search of a great product, or is it just something nerds have dreamed about ever since reading Dick Tracy and watching James Bond?</p>
<p>I’m not saying Apple won’t do this product. Seems like there’s enough smoke out there to suggest that Apple is at least building prototypes, if not getting ready for a release in the coming year or two. I’m just saying that if it does release this product, it’ll be somewhat new territory for Apple. Maybe more innovative, even, than anything Apple has done in a long time.<a href="#fn:2" title="see footnote">[2]</a></p>
<p>Apple could actually be practically inventing a new category, rather than just dominating it after the fact.</p>
<p>Could it be that Apple has crippled the rest of the consumer electronics market so much that it no longer has rivals capable of trying and failing in these new territories? Is Apple going to have to troll Kickstarter to get new product ideas? Will it have to be first-to-market eventually, in order to keep expanding? I find that a much more fascinating question than whether or not Apple makes a wrist computer or a large-screen iPhone. <a href="#fn:3" title="see footnote">[3]</a></p>
<p><strong>Update</strong>: Gavin McKenzie (@gavinmckenzie) on App.net reminded me that Microsoft did indeed try the wrist watch market several years ago. They stopped selling their SPOT (Smart Personal Object Technology) line of devices back in 2008, but one of its products was indeed a watch. Good catch. But there are no major players making smart watches today.</p>
<ol>
<li>I say “wrist computer” rather than “watch” because the iWatch, or whatever it’s called, won’t be a watch. It’ll be a computer on your wrist that happens to tell time. The way the iPhone is a computer in your pocket that happens to make phone calls. <a href="#fnref:1" title="return to article"> ↩</a></li>
<li>The Newton, oddly enough, is probably the last device of Apple’s that was first-to-market, at least from the standpoint of the major players. I say oddly enough, because that product was also developed and released without Jobs at the helm of Apple. <a href="#fnref:2" title="return to article"> ↩</a></li>
<li>I’ve danced around the subject of Google Glass here, of course. Google is obviously hot to get into consumer electronics, but so far I think it has chosen its new categories poorly. I personally think that Google Glass will creep people out sufficiently enough that it will effectively go nowhere. I don’t think even Apple has enough trust with its audience to make that one successful—yet. And now that Goolge is the enemy rather than a partner, Apple is going to have to beef up it’s online services a <em>lot</em> more before it can succeed with such a product, anyway. Maybe four or five years down the road. Meanwhile, whether or not Google takes up the mantle of consumer electronics rival to Apple is very much an open question. <a href="#fnref:3" title="return to article"> ↩</a></li>
</ol>
<!--kg-card-end: markdown-->]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[How to Turn Rumor into Fact in One Easy Step]]></title><description><![CDATA[<!--kg-card-begin: markdown--><blockquote>
<p><a href="http://day4.se/how-we-screwed-almost-the-whole-apple-community/">Day4 – How we screwed (almost) the whole Apple community</a>: “The split between the two camps, was quite unequal. An estimate would be that 90% regarded the screw as a fact and based all the further opinion on that, only 10% were critical to accuracy.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>(Via. <a href="http://day4.se/how-we-screwed-almost-the-whole-apple-community/">Day4.se)</a></p>
<p>Fascinating look at</p>]]></description><link>http://joecieplinski.com/blog/2012/08/13/how-to-turn-rumor-into-fact-in-one-easy-step/</link><guid isPermaLink="false">5a5d1b5325d00b7ebe1f4725</guid><category><![CDATA[apple]]></category><category><![CDATA[media]]></category><category><![CDATA[rumors]]></category><dc:creator><![CDATA[Joe Cieplinski]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 13 Aug 2012 10:08:10 GMT</pubDate><content:encoded><![CDATA[<!--kg-card-begin: markdown--><blockquote>
<p><a href="http://day4.se/how-we-screwed-almost-the-whole-apple-community/">Day4 – How we screwed (almost) the whole Apple community</a>: “The split between the two camps, was quite unequal. An estimate would be that 90% regarded the screw as a fact and based all the further opinion on that, only 10% were critical to accuracy.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>(Via. <a href="http://day4.se/how-we-screwed-almost-the-whole-apple-community/">Day4.se)</a></p>
<p>Fascinating look at how easy it is to get a rumor started.</p>
<p>And therein lies the primary issue for information moving forward. No wonder we have a presidential candidate here in the US that gets away with lying about literally everything that comes out his mouth (not just distorting, cherry picking, or misrepresenting, as all politicians do, but all out lying). People have lost all ability to question what they read and hear on the Internet. The laziness bias has finally won. We hear what we want to hear, and nothing will ever change our minds. There’s literally no penalty for being completely full of crap.</p>
<p>Game over. The world’s most advanced tool for disseminating truth to the masses has been turned into the world’s best weapon for disinformation.</p>
<p>I remember in 7th grade, my teacher one day started a lesson, and he just went on and on for about 20 minutes, and we all just took notes diligently, writing down everything he said word for word. And then he stopped and asked us why we all assumed he was telling us the truth. Turned out he was just rambling nonsense for 20 minutes, and none of us bothered to question it. It was a huge eye opener for me. I still think about that day on a regular basis.</p>
<p>Question authority. Never assume what you’re hearing is the truth. We’re in desperate need of some healthy skepticism. Even the so-called “fact-finding” sites that try and point out people’s lies are often wrong or biased. It’s just about impossible to know what’s true and what isn’t.</p>
<p>Our insatiable desire to know everything has turned us into suckers for anyone who will tell us what we want to hear. That does not bode well for humanity.</p>
<p>Maybe we need more teachers who are willing to have their authority questioned every now and then for the betterment of their students.</p>
<!--kg-card-end: markdown-->]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[My Thoughts on a Larger-screen iPhone]]></title><description><![CDATA[<!--kg-card-begin: markdown--><p>Clearly, something is going on with the next iPhone. The rumors of big screens have been floating around for ages, but there’s a lot more smoke this time around. So I have to think this is at least a possibility.</p>
<p>Personally, though, I’m still not feeling the need</p>]]></description><link>http://joecieplinski.com/blog/2012/05/22/my-thoughts-on-a-larger-screen-iphone/</link><guid isPermaLink="false">5a5d1b5325d00b7ebe1f46bf</guid><category><![CDATA[android]]></category><category><![CDATA[apple]]></category><category><![CDATA[iOS]]></category><category><![CDATA[iPhone]]></category><category><![CDATA[rumors]]></category><dc:creator><![CDATA[Joe Cieplinski]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 22 May 2012 10:07:08 GMT</pubDate><content:encoded><![CDATA[<!--kg-card-begin: markdown--><p>Clearly, something is going on with the next iPhone. The rumors of big screens have been floating around for ages, but there’s a lot more smoke this time around. So I have to think this is at least a possibility.</p>
<p>Personally, though, I’m still not feeling the need for a larger screen. The notion that Apple “needs” to do this because of all the Android phones out there with big screens is preposterous. Android is coming apart at the seams. The big screens were an attempt to differentiate the Android phones from Apple. This wasn’t something most users were clamoring for, and many users who get these devices pushed on them don’t even like the larger screen. They aren’t an improvement, in other words. People in general don’t want larger devices in their pockets. They like their phones small. I think Gruber is right that if the iPhone gets a larger screen, it doesn’t necessarily mean the phone itself will be larger. There’s room for a larger screen without going nuts and making a Galaxy Note hunk of junk. <a href="http://www.theverge.com/2012/4/9/2937265/the-4-inch-iphone-5">In fact, the screen could be 4 inches without making the footprint of the iPhone any bigger</a>.</p>
<p>(I really don’t think Apple needs to worry about Android in the long run at all, by the way. Maybe that sounds nuts, but watch the numbers carefully. Android’s golden age is already over. It’s peaked, as far as growth rate relative to others is concerned, and it’s nowhere in the tablet race. Google has never gotten the app ecosystem off the ground, and now with all the viruses plaguing Android there’s even less trust from the users, which means even fewer developers are going to make apps. Every OEM making Android devices except for Samsung is losing money. They will jump ship to Microsoft, or whoever else offers them a better deal down the line. And the users will buy whatever the kids in the carrier stores push on them. This is a fickle market. Android will self-destruct without any help from Apple.)</p>
<p>But again, I’ll ask the question none of the nerds seem to be asking. How does a bigger screen make the phone better? More icons on the home screen? Really? That’s it? Widescreen videos a little bigger? Ok. I guess. I have yet to read any compelling argument for how this would improve the iPhone experience. That doesn’t mean there isn’t a compelling argument; I’m just saying that no one seems to be focusing on the only reason Apple would pull the trigger on this.</p>
<p>As far as third party developer concerns, that’s a bit ludicrous, too. Apple ultimately doesn’t care if we developers have to work to get our apps updated to match the new screen size. If they think a bigger phone screen would be better, than they’ll make the phone with a bigger screen, and the developers will fall in line. What choice do we have? They may provide some tools to make the transition easier, but basically, what the developers need or want is the lowest thing on Apple’s hierarchy of concerns. Apple does what is best for Apple, what is best for the customer, and then what is best for developers, in that order. Anyone who has ever opened Xcode knows this.</p>
<p>Now, if Apple announces this new phone, but no apps support it on day one, that’s a problem. And clearly, some apps won’t ever get updated, because their developers have abandoned them long ago. So Apple will need something equivalent to what they did on the iPad with iPhone apps. There will have to be some default way that this new phone adapts older apps to work correctly on the new screen. It doesn’t have to make for a perfect experience—iPhone apps on the iPad are a pretty lame experience—but it does have to work. A stop-gap measure until the developers do the correct enhancements. Other than that, Apple doesn’t need to be concerned about third-party apps at all.</p>
<p>I do worry about the long-term health of the App Store ecosystem, but that’s a subject for a separate post. Right now, Apple is in the driver’s seat, and they can get away with pretty much anything, making us all jump through hoops to be in the Store. But ultimately, it would probably be in Apple’s best interests to start thinking a little more about what kinds of developers are successful in this market. If they’re not careful, they could easily end up in a position where only big corporations like Adobe are back in control of the software side of things. And that’s <em>not</em> in Apple’s best interest.</p>
<p>As soon as someone can tell me why a bigger iPhone screen would be better, I’ll get more excited about this. Whether or not it happens is much less interesting to me than the why.</p>
<!--kg-card-end: markdown-->]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Here We Go Again with the Big iPhone Nonsense]]></title><description><![CDATA[<!--kg-card-begin: markdown--><p><a href="http://www.tuaw.com/2012/03/23/the-rumors-have-begun-next-iphone-to-get-a-bigger-screen/">The rumors have begun: next iPhone to get a bigger screen?</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p><span><span>The latest report comes from a Maeil Business Newspaper via<span></span><a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/22/us-apple-iphone-idUSBRE82L01G20120322">Reuters</a><span></span>and claims the next iPhone will sport a 4.6-inch display. An unnamed industry source provided this tidbit, so I wouldn’t place any bets just yet.</span></span></p>
</blockquote>
<p>(Via</p>]]></description><link>http://joecieplinski.com/blog/2012/03/23/here-we-go-again-with-the-big-iphone-nonsense/</link><guid isPermaLink="false">5a5d1b5225d00b7ebe1f467a</guid><category><![CDATA[apple]]></category><category><![CDATA[iPhone]]></category><category><![CDATA[rumors]]></category><dc:creator><![CDATA[Joe Cieplinski]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 23 Mar 2012 10:42:49 GMT</pubDate><content:encoded><![CDATA[<!--kg-card-begin: markdown--><p><a href="http://www.tuaw.com/2012/03/23/the-rumors-have-begun-next-iphone-to-get-a-bigger-screen/">The rumors have begun: next iPhone to get a bigger screen?</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p><span><span>The latest report comes from a Maeil Business Newspaper via<span></span><a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/22/us-apple-iphone-idUSBRE82L01G20120322">Reuters</a><span></span>and claims the next iPhone will sport a 4.6-inch display. An unnamed industry source provided this tidbit, so I wouldn’t place any bets just yet.</span></span></p>
</blockquote>
<p>(Via <a href="http://www.tuaw.com">TUAW – The Unofficial Apple Weblog</a>)</p>
<p>Android phones started getting bigger screens last year because hardware manufacturers were desperate to differentiate themselves from the iPhone. “Bigger is better” went the thinking. But I’d say the evidence is far from conclusive that this is what users actually wanted. Sure, these phones sold in decent quantities, but that’s because carrier store employees were pushing them like crack dealers. I know several people who walked out of the store with one of those giant leviathans and were immediately disappointed in the way the thing felt in their hands.</p>
<p>The big screen is far from a “must-have” feature. If that weren’t true, iPhone sales would be hurting right now, not growing.</p>
<p>Another speculation about the big screen phenomenon was that hardware makers needed bigger screens so that they could put in bigger batteries to make up for LTE’s lousy battery life. I have no idea if that’s true or not, but if it is, it didn’t work. Most 4G phones suck for battery life, anyway.</p>
<p>So that brings us back to Apple. Apple is not struggling to differentiate itself. The iPhone is iconic. Making it bigger actually would hurt the brand more than help it. Apple also <em>never</em> does anything just because everyone else is doing it. They don’t want to be seen as copycats on anything, even when they are copying other people’s ideas. If there were any value in a larger screen beyond marketing, Apple would have designed the original iPhone that way.</p>
<p>Furthermore, a larger screen requires either apps that need to be redesigned to take advantage of the larger real estate, or a lower resolution than the current retina iPhone 4s to stretch the same pixels over a wider area. This would mean the screen would look worse, and all the target areas we’ve grown used to would be bigger, causing a loss of familiarity in user experience. Can you remember the last time Apple made a new product that was <em>worse</em> in this fundamental a way than its predecessor?</p>
<p>Remember, for iOS, the <em>screen is the device</em>. You don’t follow up the awesome screen of the new Retina iPad with a lesser screen in the next iPhone.</p>
<p>With the battery thing, I have to think that Apple will come up with a more clever way to make an LTE iPhone work all day without strapping on a giant screen to make room for a larger battery. There are just too many downsides. Either Apple will wait another year for LTE chips to catch up on efficiency and take the slight negative press hit on that, or they’ll have some new chip up their sleeve that ekes more battery somehow. I just don’t buy all the “bigger iPhone” rumors.</p>
<!--kg-card-end: markdown-->]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Lots of Apple speculation going on: So why not suggest something crazy again?]]></title><description><![CDATA[<!--kg-card-begin: markdown--><div class="posterous_bookmarklet_entry">> The rumored thinner, lighter iPhone could be the very-low-priced model, closer to the iPod Touch in appearance and component quality, with lower specs, less storage, and an unsubsidized price of around $300.
<div class="posterous_quote_citation">via [marco.org](http://www.marco.org/2011/07/08/iphone-5-ipad-3-speculation)</div>Marco Arment penned a good piece today</div>]]></description><link>http://joecieplinski.com/blog/2011/07/09/lots-of-apple-speculation-going-on-so-why-not-suggest-something-crazy-again/</link><guid isPermaLink="false">5a5d1b5125d00b7ebe1f45d9</guid><category><![CDATA[apple]]></category><category><![CDATA[iPhone]]></category><category><![CDATA[rumors]]></category><dc:creator><![CDATA[Joe Cieplinski]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sat, 09 Jul 2011 04:44:00 GMT</pubDate><content:encoded><![CDATA[<!--kg-card-begin: markdown--><div class="posterous_bookmarklet_entry">> The rumored thinner, lighter iPhone could be the very-low-priced model, closer to the iPod Touch in appearance and component quality, with lower specs, less storage, and an unsubsidized price of around $300.
<div class="posterous_quote_citation">via [marco.org](http://www.marco.org/2011/07/08/iphone-5-ipad-3-speculation)</div>Marco Arment penned a good piece today addressing many of the recent conflicting rumors floating around about Apple’s plans for this fall. I agree with a good deal of his post, especially the part about the newest speculation of a “Retina” iPad. I try to never say never about these things, but it doesn’t seem to make much sense for Apple, who currently can’t keep up with demand for the iPad 2, and who has no effective competition that even comes close to threatening Apple’s absolute dominance of the tablet category, to release anything new in the iPad space for the remainder of this year. They’re going to sell every single iPad they can make through Christmas regardless. They would sell even more if they could make more of the one they’ve already released. Adding a new model wouldn’t help them in any way I could see, unless the non-retina display were somehow the sole cause of the bottleneck in production. Highly unlikely.
<p>In fact, the way the competition is looking (terrible), Apple could probably get away with not updating the iPad at all for another full year. They won’t wait that long, but they easily could and not lose much of anything.</p>
<p>But then we get back to this conundrum of the “cheaper” iPhone. That one still has me puzzled. Obviously, Apple wants to increase the rate of adoption for iPhones. Grow the market as quickly as possible. They started with changing from an unsubsidized to subsidized price in the US. Then they started selling worldwide in more and more countries, including now China. Then they started selling last year’s model at $100, and now as low as $49.</p>
<p>So what’s the next logical step? Most people seem to think it’s as simple as making the phone itself even cheaper. But can it really be any cheaper than $49? And would that make a large number of people change their minds about getting a smart phone?</p>
<p>Is $49 the barrier here?</p>
<p>There are three major sources of cost in owning an iPhone. All iPhone owners pay at least two of these. I’ll keep the figures in very rough approximate US dollars, for the sake of simplicity. (Forgive me, rest of the world. I know you’ll have an easier time translating into your currency than my US audience would converting from yours.)</p>
<ol>
<li>
<p>The upfront cost of the device itself. $750 or so, if you want to buy it outright. $200-$300 if you are willing to sign a long-term contract (usually two-years). $49 if you sign up for that same contract and are willing to have last year’s model.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The contract. If you went for the cheaper upfront cost, you pay your carrier over the course of your contract via a minimum monthly charge. In most cases, this just amounts to a commitment to spend two years on that same carrier with that same phone, with some sort of minimum minute allotment and a minimum data plan. After your contract is up, you are free to move on to another phone or another carrier, but you are usually required to stay on those minimum plans if you wish to stay with that carrier.*</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The monthly plan. This is where the majority of the cost comes into play. We’re usually talking about a minimum monthly bill of $80 or so for any smart phone. Most of us pay even more for things like tethering, unlimited texts, etc. Compared to a regular “dumb” phone, that’s a premium of up to $50 over what you could be paying for the cheapest plans out there, and probably around $30 more a month than most people pay on average. That’s a significant jump for a lot of people. And it makes that $49 one-time price for last-year’s iPhone seem like no big deal.</p>
</li>
</ol>
<p>Marco’s suggestion is that perhaps with an unsubsidized cost of around $300, people could get out of the contract part of the bill, at least. But to most US consumers, anyway, that actually makes the phone seem MORE expensive. We have to pay for data regardless, so why not sign the contract and get the “better” iPhone that’s only $200?</p>
<p>A cheaper unsubsidized iPhone may tempt some users who don’t like long-term commitments, but it fails to grab the interest of the majority of non-iPhone owners. At least in the US. Worldwide, where people do get the concept of an unsubsidized phone, this could maybe help attract some of the people currently going for the ultra cheap Android phones out there. But I can’t see it making a huge impact, even there.</p>
<p>And I don’t see Apple gutting its profit margins just to grab a few more people.</p>
<p>The real problem to solve is the monthly data cost. Cash-strapped folks in a worldwide depressed economy, who are the majority of non-smart phone users left, always think in terms of their monthly bills, not their two-year commitments. The entry level monthly bill simply needs to be smaller. And I just don’t see how Apple solves that problem in the short term. Not as long as there isn’t a $10 or less data plan available.**</p>
<p>Unless Apple somehow started providing its own service, by buying carriers all over the world, or reselling the use of those networks through some sort of complicated system of partnerships, taking a hit on the cost and making it up on the hardware sales, I don’t see how they accomplish this. I don’t see from where the leverage would come with the carriers worldwide to offer cheaper entry into the smartphone world.</p>
<p><a href="http://jcieplinski.posterous.com/the-iphone-nano-its-not-what-you-think">Months ago</a>, I speculated that Apple could release an entirely different phone from the iPhone, something that would have limited data capabilities, at least when not connected to WiFi. An iPod touch, if you will, WITH a phone, but without 3G data, or very limited 3G data. I even took it a step further and suggested something even less capable. An upscaled “feature” phone that could do basic things like email, but not data-heavy tasks like video streaming. Something that didn’t even run iOS, at least not at the UI level. Something much simpler. No apps, even. Just phone calls, maybe email and SMS. Basic PDA functions, all syncing with your Mac or PC.</p>
<p>Maybe I was nuts to even suggest it, but I still think Apple would make more money in the short run selling the world’s best feature phone to the millions and millions of people worldwide who aren’t going to buy a smartphone this year or next anyway, than they will trying to sell a slightly cheaper upfront iPhone to the cash-strapped, unemployed masses, all the while fighting the carriers over the cost of entry-level data plans.</p>
<p>Get the masses hooked on the Apple experience with a really slick, touch screen, ultra-thin and light feature phone. Innovate in a space where no one is even trying to innovate anymore. Kill what’s left of Nokia’s business while they’re busy trying to make Windows Phone 7 work for them. Kill off most of the Android manufacturers who are currently making a lot more money on feature phones than Android phones. They’d never see it coming.</p>
<p>Yeah. Probably not going to happen, I know. But I still think it makes more sense than most of what I’ve been hearing on the rumor mill lately.</p>
<p></p>
<p></p>
<p>*Because most carriers in the US don’t allow you to use any smartphone without these minimum plans, and because the differences between CDMA and GSM make it impossible to jump from carrier to carrier easily, many US buyers opt for the contract as a small price to pay for a cheaper upfront bill. Worldwide, unsubsidized iPhones are more common than in the US.</p>
<p>**<a href="http://daringfireball.net/linked/2011/07/05/verizon-plans">John Gruber</a> suggested earlier this week that a $10 entry-level data plan for, say, 75 MB of data or so, would help grab more people into the smart phone realm. I think that makes a lot of sense. Get them hooked on that 75 MB, and it won’t be long before they start paying more for 200 MB. Especially as streaming video gets more popular. But I do think you’d have a hard time getting carriers to agree to that right now, ironically. Because the carriers can barely keep up with demand on their networks now. Even 50 MB more, multiplied by millions of users, would be a huge hit to the available bandwidth. So Apple would have a hard time selling this to carriers, I think, short term. At least until there’s more bandwidth available, the carriers would rather DISCOURAGE data use, which is why they’re all switching to tiered pricing plans. Another reason for Apple to avoid any new product that relies on as much data as the current iPhone.</p>
</div>
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