Tag Archives: apple

Data, not Desire

INT. AN OFFICE BUILDING SOMEWHERE IN CUPERTINO. SITTING AT THE CONFERENCE TABLE ARE TIM COOK, PHIL SCHILLER, AND JONY IVE. THEY ARE BEGINNING TOP SECRET DISCUSSIONS ABOUT THE NEXT ITERATION OF MACBOOK PRO.

TIM: We have the latest data. Developers want a thicker laptop with the fastest processor possible. They’d rather have more battery life than a thinner profile. And for sure, it absolutely needs to max out at 32GB of RAM. Oh, and it should be upgradable, so they can buy a new one even less frequently than they already do.

PHIL: I talked to our engineers. All that is easily doable, but we’d have to make the thing a bit thicker.

JONY: I want thin.

TIM: Look, I know you guys have a vision for the future of the Mac, but the data just doesn’t show that your vision is what people want.

JONY: Thin.

TIM: Oh, come on…

PHIL: We have go thinner. He’s right. I hate carrying around a heavy notebook. Hey, how about we add a Touch Bar on top of the keyboard? That’ll be awesome!

TIM: But then we won’t have a physical escape key. That’ll be even worse for our all-important developer customer base! Our most important customers want thick and as fast as possible, damn it!

JONY: Thin.

TIM: Ok. Thin it is. Ship it.

All joking aside, I do worry, reading my Twitter timeline over the past few days, that some people actually believe Apple makes decisions based on what the executives personally want, rather than what data tells them is viable.

Unlike us, Apple has millions of dollars on the line in these decisions. If you think what executives at Apple want to build trumps what they think they can sell, you should take a moment and think about it more logically.

Here are a few things Apple knows that you don’t:

  • How many of each kind of laptop they’ve sold in the past five years
  • Where those purchasers live
  • What they do for a living
  • The detailed trend of PC sales worldwide across all PC types
  • What their customers’ general upgrade habits are
  • What they are likely to buy in the next year
  • How customers use their laptops
  • What kinds of places they use them
  • Which ports they use
  • What they’d like to do with their laptops that they can’t currently do
  • New technologies that aren’t ready for primetime yet, but will be coming in a few years
  • The long-term plan for the Mac software platform, as it continually evolves in response to worldwide trends
  • The limitations of what can and can’t be placed in a laptop due to physics, market forces, government regulations, availability of parts, etc.
  • The cost of manufacturing and transporting laptops worldwide, including component costs, long-term contracts, etc.

And about a gazillion other bits of data they’ve been collecting over several years of running the largest retail business on Earth.

Without access to any of this data, none of us is in a position to know what would be best for Apple.

It’s perfectly normal to be upset that the ideal laptop for you isn’t being made by Apple. But where you lose me is in assuming that decision is a mistake, or a purposeful snub, on Apple’s part.

Apple wants its products to succeed. And that’s as far as the want goes.

For all we know, Apple mocked up a more perfect laptop for developers, complete with Cherry switches on the keyboard and an oversized escape key. But then they analyzed the data, predicted the number of sales of such a beast, and decided it would lose money. So they opted not to make it.

Seems more likely to me than believing Tim Cook either doesn’t know what developers want, or that he doesn’t care because Apple is “obsessed with thin.”

These are not emotion-driven decisions. They are data-driven decisions.

Missing More than the Plot

“Anyone that watched the DJ scrubbing the Touch Bar and didn’t think it would be 100 times more natural to scratch with the on screen turn tables on a the flat Surface Studio screen wasn’t thinking too hard.”

(via John Kheit for the Mac Observer)

I basically disagree with this entire article. But that last bit really struck me as monumentally stupid.

If John knew any actual DJs, he’d know a few things:

  • Algoriddim already has an excellent iPad version of djayPro, which works great on the iPad’s touch surface. In fact, it won an Apple Design Award back in 2011.
  • Many pro DJs opt for a Mac over the iPad, despite the touch screen. The MacBook Pro is the industry standard for modern computer-based DJs.
  • No DJ wants to cart around a desktop machine the size of the Surface Studio into a night club for a gig. It would be ridiculously cumbersome.
  • From what everyone says about Surface Studio, the latency would probably outweigh the benefits of a larger touch surface

I’ve heard a number of people comment on how “stupid” the djay demo was. The point of the djay demo was to show the creative possibilities of what could be done with the Touch Bar. Try to see the potential, not the specifics. I thought it was a great demonstration of the versatility of the Touch Bar, if you are willing to put in a little effort and some creative thinking as a developer. This is way more than a row of keyboard shortcuts.

Who wants to wager with me that MacBook Pro sales outpace Microsoft Surface Studio sales by a million or more units in the next quarter? I think that’s a pretty safe bet, don’t you?

Thoughts on the Hello Again Event

A few quick takeaways from Apple’s Hello Again event:

  • Accessibility is one of those things that makes Apple stand out as a company. They’ve cared about it for a long time, but they’ve upped their game even further in the Tim Cook era. Just as they have on environmental issues, diversity, social justice and equality, and on and on. They have a long way to go before they are perfect, but they strive to be better than what they are. And you can’t deny their impact on people’s lives. Some see Apple opening their keynotes this way as a distraction. Or “the boring part.” Some cynical people probably see it as a smokescreen. I see it as a clear, public demonstration of what the company values. And that makes me feel good as a customer and shareholder.
  • Apple is out of the monitor business. When Phil Schiller is on stage saying “Hey, check out this cool new LG Monitor” you know Apple has no plans to make a monitor ever again.
  • The MacBook Air is done. They may be keeping the 13-inch around to sell out current inventory, but the new Pro is now smaller than the 13-inch Air ever was, and the 12-inch MacBook is already smaller than the 11-inch Air. So size is no longer a benefit. The only remaining benefit of the Air—cost—is answered by the 12-inch MacBook, the entry-level Touch Bar-less MacBook Pro, and my next bullet point.
  • The days of the sub $1,000 Mac are done. I thought the Air would stick around for another generation because of this price tier, but then I thought about it more carefully. Low-cost PCs make almost no sense anymore. People who need the power of macOS are becoming a smaller group with every passing year. Prices will continue to reflect the shrinking market. Apple has an entry-level machine for people who are budget constrained, and it’s only $599. It’s called the iPad Pro. That machine does everything the target audience for an 11-inch Air or 13-inch Air would need and more. The MacBook and MacBook Pro 13 with no Touch Bar will cover anyone else, albeit at a slightly higher cost. The price you pay for needing more power than the average person. Pretty soon, the only people who need macOS will be certain kinds of pros. So it’s pro machines from here on out. And those pro machines are going to keep getting more expensive. Don’t worry; you won’t be upgrading them very often.
  • Laptops are where Apple sees pros moving forward. I don’t think they’ll kill the iMac soon, necessarily, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Mac Pro were truly dead this time.[1] The Touch Bar is a perfect demonstration of where Apple wants to innovate. And it’s likely a laptop-only feature. Sure, they could put a Touch Bar on a Bluetooth keyboard, but I’m not 100% sure they will.[2] Which means even the next generation iMac will likely be missing out on this incredibly cool and useful new input device. Meanwhile the MacBook is likely to get a Touch Bar as soon as it’s cost-effective. Apple clearly sees portability as being an important value to professionals. Some may spend 90% of their time sitting in a room alone working, but many other professionals need their machines to go wherever they do. And with Thunderbolt 3, it’s easier than ever to take one cable and plug into power, external display, multiple USB peripherals, web cam, and more when at your home office. The laptop becomes as powerful as a desktop workstation in a second with one cable, yet still retains the ability to be taken elsewhere when needed.
  • The Touch Bar is a big deal. I’ve heard some say they aren’t sold on it yet, but once they get one, I think they’ll change their tune. This is the first input device for macOS since the trackpad that will change the way we use our laptops. Because it’s built in. And it’s in the perfect place, just above where my hands already are. If developers are smart about the controls they put up there, and people can customize as much as it appears they can, it’ll soon be hard to imagine life without the Touch Bar. So much so I would say that even using your MacBook Pro in clamshell mode with an external monitor, keyboard, and mouse is going to become less popular. The Touch Bar will be that useful, and you will notice when it isn’t there. I’m so stoked about the Touch Bar that I’m considering not replacing my iMac next year, as I had planned. Instead, I’ll get a 13-inch or 15-inch Pro and finally consolidate into one Mac again, after six years of using a 2-Mac setup.
  • The Touch Bar is not cheap. Apple created a “dumbed-down” MacBook Pro to help bridge the gap between Air buyers and Pro buyers. It’s telling that they left in the gorgeous new wide-color display and the Thunderbolt 3, but took out the Touch Bar as a cost-saving measure. There’s nothing “Pro” specific about the Touch Bar itself. The emoji alone will appeal greatly to consumers. But this input device is debuting on the Pro because it’s a costly add-on for Apple, and the highest-margin machines are the easiest place to add such a feature. I wouldn’t be surprised if next year’s MacBook only gets the Touch Bar on the high-end model, too.[3]
  • The new MacBook Pros have finally gotten thin and light enough to make the 12-inch MacBook less appealing to me. People make fun of Apple’s obsession with thin, but this is a massive deal to people like me. I use my laptop every single day. I travel around New York City with it, on crowded subways and busy sidewalks. On busses, trains, and coach-class airplane seats. And it’s seldom the only thing I’m carrying. My laptop can never be thin enough or light enough. If I had the last generation of MacBook Pro, I’d be leaving it home much more often and opting for my iPad when moving around. The new Pro seems to have crossed the threshold of light and small enough to become my one-and-only Mac.[4] I could not be more excited about this.
  • Apple’s long-term strategy for the Mac could not be more clear. They are consolidating all the various models into one line in three sizes: 12-inch, 13-inch, and 15-inch. The larger ones will be more powerful and expensive, the smaller more portable and cheaper. Choose accordingly. In a few years, I suspect there will be exactly that many laptops—and perhaps just that many Macs in total—from which to choose. This makes perfect sense for a category of technology that, frankly, is becoming more niche by the minute. Keep making it more powerful and more portable, and add innovative features like Touch Bar that give you the benefits of multitouch input, but in a way that makes sense within this form factor. It may not be your ideal picture of the future of macOS, but it’s definitely a strategy, and one that Apple thinks is best for its long-term business. And looking at the evolving market, it sure seems like they know what they are doing.

  1. People have noted the stark contrast between Apple’s laptop-only announcements this week and Microsoft’s Surface Studio announcement. As much as I think the Surface Studio is an awesome machine for artists, I think Apple is probably right in putting all their chips on laptops over desktops. There’s probably a market for the Surface Studio, but it’s a really small one. Maybe Apple should do all it can to hold on to those artists, but honestly, I think they stand a better chance of doing that with a larger iPad than a macOS machine that converts to a drafting table. It’ll be interesting to see where Apple takes iPad (and consequently iOS) next year. There’s no reason iOS can’t become an operating system for certain categories of pros, like digital artists.  ↩

  2. One issue with a Touch Bar on a wireless keyboard is angle of view. The Touch Bar screen is optimized for the angle at which your eyes are likely to be positioned while typing on a laptop. A quick glance down to the bar is natural and doesn’t disrupt your focus on the main screen. With a detached keyboard, especially one that sits on a shelf below your desk, the controls on the Touch Bar become far less visible, and thus far less useful. The Touch Bar could easily become a cumbersome distraction, rather than a useful tool, in this setup. Thus, I would not be surprised if Apple never brings it to the iMac or its standalone Bluetooth keyboards.  ↩

  3. Whereas I had previously thought the 12-inch MacBook was going to get cheaper every year until it could take over the old 11-inch Air $999 price slot, I now think it more likely to retain its higher price but have the addition of the Touch Bar instead. At least in the short term. Or, as I suggested, they could split the high and low end by offering the Touch Bar on the higher-priced versions only. But I’ll be amazed if the MacBook doesn’t get the Touch Bar at all next year.  ↩

  4. Even the 15-inch is somewhat appealing to me, if it’s going to be my only Mac. I don’t see myself getting an external display, so getting all the pixels I can out of my internal monitor might be worth the extra weight. And it’ll be pricier, but likely last longer for me. I’ve gotten by for almost four years now on my current iMac. I could see myself going 4 years on a MacBook Pro 15-inch, but probably fewer on a slower 13-inch. Not sure about that one yet for me. I’ll reserve judgment until I can get both sizes in my hands.  ↩

Taking the Enthusiasm out of Tech

I remember when I bought my first FireWire Mac. I was so excited at the prospect of having a port that could allow me to record multiple tracks of simultaneous audio without missing a beat. Sure, it meant I had to get a whole new I/O breakout box to take advantage of all that speed. But the possibilities were so enthralling, I couldn’t wait to spend all my money. And all my tech enthusiast friends were right there with me.

Apple left a few legacy ports on the Mac at the time, but I wasn’t about to use them. I bought the new thing so I can take advantage of the new stuff, man. That’s what being a nerd is all about.

Yesterday, Apple announced an all-new MacBook Pro with not one but four Thunderbolt 3 connectors. Thunderbolt 3 is twice as fast as Thunderbolt 2. It allows 40 Gbps of throughput. So this new MacBook is capable of driving two 5k monitors along with its own internal Retina display, and who knows how many other amazing peripherals all at once. I can plug in one cable to my external monitor and get power, display, and whatever other ultra-fast peripherals I choose to plug into the back of the monitor. This is a nerd’s wet dream.

It makes FireWire seem like Flintstones-era technology.

So imagine my surprise when the response from the Apple tech enthusiast community was basically this:

“I HAVE TO BUY A DONGLE. THIS SUCKS!”

I’m not joking. I saw one tweet in my entire timeline yesterday that had anything at all to say about how amazing Thunderbolt 3 is.

What happened to the tech community? When did we stop getting excited about tech, and instead spend all our time making “Courage” jokes?

Healthy criticism is necessary and a force for good in society. This is not that. This is mistaking being critical for being intelligent. We’ve glorified those who nitpick and have rewarded them so much that they have no choice but to up their game every year. And as a result, we’ve taken all the fun out of being a nerd.

Whenever I get my next Mac, I’m going to have to do a lot more than buy a few dongles. But I’m not complaining. I got a lot of years out of my old FireWire 400 I/O box, which I adapted to FireWire 800, and then Thunderbolt, with—you guessed it—a series of dongles. But it’s time to move on. Maybe that means waiting another six months until I can save up the funds to make the leap, but so be it. I’m excited about the possibilities.

More on Sticker Pack Screenshots

As I continually iterate on the Mixologist Sticker Pack, I’m also paying close attention to the iMessage App Store and its trends. Screenshots for sticker packs are still largely disappointing. But some of the craftier developers are coming up with presentations for their stickers that are quite nice.

My favorites have done away with the entire notion of presenting actual screenshots, and are instead just presenting the stickers in rows on a colored background. This makes perfect sense, as anyone buying stickers gets the idea, generally, of what stickers can do. What a buyer wants to know is what the stickers look like, more or less. And that’s it.

I ended up taking this approach for the latest version of Mixologist and the Leo Collection, and I think the results are quite good.

Mixologist screen shot oneMixologist screen shot two

There’s just no way to make a shot of an iMessage conversation look particularly eye-catching. By simply showing the stickers in rows, I’m both presenting my stickers in the best light, and giving my potential customers a better sense of what they are buying.

You can see the full set of five screenshots on the App Store.